After the election
When the results were out, there were many people around the country who heaved a sigh of relief.
A few months before the elections, when I asked people I knew who was likely to win - the people I questioned included elected officials, writers, NGO workers, political scientists - a good majority of them were pessimistic about seeing a strong government in power, and especially a Congress or BJP-led one. ‘Our days are numbered’, is how one Congress worker put it. A large number of people suggested (and this was a popular expectation in our media) that caste-based and regional parties would have a bigger clout post-election. ‘The next government will be a hodge-podge, and they’ll move quite sharply to the left,’ one senior policy planner guessed.
The Congress’ win is forcing a re-evaluation. Were the compelling factors for the victory the Employment Guarantee Program, concern about defense, a desire for a more empowered government, or dynastic appeal? People seemed to have voted for stable, equitable development. Its been pointed out that the Congress and its allies did well in places where the NREG Program and the rural electrification scheme were implemented effectively. The win/loss pattern across states is also telling: the UPA did badly in states where the opposition governments have been effective in bringing about development and growth - this included Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat.
Does this mean that the hand-wringing over voters’ preferences for caste and regional alliances was misplaced? I think so. The rise of markets means that there is much more at stake for voters today - good governance and better access to the economy can bring about substantial improvements in jobs, income, and education for children. This wasn’t the case pre-1980, when opportunities were much fewer. Voters are therefore far more demanding of their leaders, and and a failure in governance makes them far less sympathetic to the fact that a certain party is supposed to represent their religion, or caste.
So what will the government do with its expanded mandate? Will we get to see a smart mix of reforms and welfare policy? Will the government finally, attempt to tackle our broken subsidy systems and education reform? The next few years are going to be very interesting.
Tags: Congress, Election, Government
May 28th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Absolutely! None of the experts could foresee a clear UPA majority. It was indeed a predicament to predict. I wonder whether you and Nandan had read my article published in the TOI on 23rd May 09, if not please read it - link here: http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=VE9JTS8yMDA5LzA1LzIzI0FyMDIwMDc=&Mode=HTML&Locale=english-skin-custom
May 28th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Yes, it does seem that, finally development and growth has taken over caste-based politics. But, the UPA win is most probably because of Dr Singh’s image and stature. Although, I thought the Mumbai attack would probably dent their chances.
Also, I thought, after Singur, Mamata Banerjee would end as a footnote. There ought to be a message in her success.
Finally, with BJP in Karnataka and UPA in center, next few years will be “interesting” for Bangalore/Karnataka at least.
May 28th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
Indeed it’s a welcome change. Many people shuddered at the prospect of a caste based outcome and consequences of it. But now with this result, future certainly looks promising. Having said that, the UPA govt has a enormous task ahead to live up to people’s expectations. It’s not very often we see such trust placed by the Indian voter on a particular party. In this context, I think UPA’s biggest challenge would be performing well in Kerala in the coming years…
May 28th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Again i would like to play the cynical guy here… if we look at the results pattern, MAJORITY of the people have voted for populist measures… Rajashekar reddy with his free electricity and pro poor campaign, mamta bannerjee with her populist but regressive SINGUR AGITATION, rahul gandhi’s pro poor stance in UP, DMK govt’s unbelievable freebies including free TV, free spices, almost free rice, free money (bribe ?) for voting, possible only in india if i may add… so the picture is not very rosy yet… but having said that a stable govt at this stage is always desirable… However i hope our beloved mamta sister can confine her policies only to WB to dont influence the center… i wish rahul can up his influence and fetch 272 in the next election… wishful thinking ???
May 29th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
completely agree with cool geek.
May 30th, 2009 at 1:21 am
Indeed the change was required. New government is quite interesting and ministries are somehow rightly placed. Five of the young guns of congress got the key ministries.
I was really in a dillema that was their only one choice with finance and railways. I strongly believe that PM had got other options for these two fields especially finance. In this particular period, where every nation is suffering with the term “recession”, is Pranab Mukharjee is the right choice? May be some other expert might have done much better than him. Montek Singh Ahluwalia is the good choice, I think he deserves to be the one as he seems to be the expert for this and contributed a lot to the economy.
How do you see this sir?
May 30th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Welfare policy is an understatement. Regardless of my fear of leftist populism ruling the roost, I appreciate the attempt to pay attention to image of the people while putting the cabinet together.
June 1st, 2009 at 11:41 pm
How come nobody mentioned 65000 crores one time loan waiver for farmers, in a year of good harvest !!
Such huge amount should have been used in a more appropiate manner, spending on river linkeges,grameen rojgar,building world class infrastructure-ports,highways,etc, generating sustainable employment and not one time benefit.
Its exactly buying of votes,out of taxpayers money, similar to paying 100rs and ‘narangi’ for a vote.
AP govt was one of the most corrupt, still retained the power.Same for maharastra, their ex cm is one of most inefficient politician till date,not even a stone was turned in maha in last 5 yrs, still congress won.
Congress benefits from over 100 yrs of its existance.People(villagers) can identify the party,relate to it and keeps trusting it time and again , with/without any particular reason.
Its like investing in Lehman Brothers, taking confidence from its 150 yrs of existance,that it will never go wrong.You identify,connect and invest ( and repent:-)).
Cabinet has same old members, known for ineffeciency and corruption.States has same old CMs’known to do nothing.Leadership trusts the same old commited and not efficient politicians.Absolutly nothing has changed.
Getting work out of the laziest and corrupt lot, is like convincing taliban to adopt non-violence.
Come next elections and this times’ prediction will come true then.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
I completely agree with cool geek and Indian. Whatever congress did like Farming loan, pay rise to government employees etc was just a promotion. But I still believe it is MUCH MUCH better than cast-based party or KHICHDI. However, I am surprised with BJP’s performance here.
I hope this time Dr Singh’s gov. will do their best as they don’t need to depend much on other party and their support or pressure.