India’s Demographic Dividend
India’s demographic dividend
India’s human capital is fast emerging as the key source of its economic growth; however, the country’s outlook on its population was not always so rosy. In the seventies, following international pressure and models that forecasted huge and economically damaging population growth, an attempt was made to control this growth through the Nasbandi program initiated by Indira Gandhi’s son, Sanjay. However, the electoral defeat handed to Indira’s government in 1977 discouraged any further attempts to control population through coercion in India. This led to a demographic dividend, giving rise to a large bubble of working age people. The consequent increase in the number of young workers is leading to higher savings, higher investment and consequently a higher growth rate.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:35 pm
The growing rise in number of young citizens will surely lead to Higher savings, higher investment and higher growth rate in terms of GDP. However it also points to a disaster in case employment oppurtunities are not being created to serve this populations. The North Indians VS Marathi Mannoos debate has already led to an exodus of migrants from Mumbai to UP and Bihar. If 80% of jobs are reserved for locals then where will people coming from other States such as UP, Gujarat, AP, Keral & Tamil Nadu go for Employment? This subject needs the urgent attention of eminent statesmen as well as industrialists such as Mr Narayana Murthy and Mr. Nandan Nilekani. The solution to this case will solve many issues related to India and its youth population.
Santosh Shivaramakrishnan
INDIA.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
In my opinion India’s Demographic dividend is positively negative in a sense because India does not have rich resource to accommodate ever increasing population. Moreover, Influx of people to urban area is also a problem. In our country there is no equal growth so naturally rural population is decreasing in search of better infrastructure and job opportunities. Finally, India will be in peril if this situation persists.
December 5th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
I believe this large mass of young population needs to flow through the right channels.By this i mean the education system should be good enough to give proper value addition to the youth.Proper incentives should be given to teachers so as to retain the best talents and to encourage more people to join this noble profession.
There should be a change in the parent’s mindset that there children should be either a doctor or an engineer.The children should be given the decision to choose their career which will enable to them to maximize their productivity in their chosen field.
No child should be discouraged by the lack of educational insititutions of excellence in his/her chosen field in India.
December 29th, 2008 at 2:50 am
i take this oppertunity to enumerate some of the points which pop up in my amateur mind. we should allure people for participating in making this country develope. as some one here wrote that we should pay teachers proper incentives so that they induce professionalism in thenselves, similarly governance should attract private companies by certain attractive offers or rebates to make them work for this nation in any form. some of this sort is done, but now i think we need a BIG step, to see a BIG change..
February 21st, 2009 at 4:46 pm
The demographic dividend can be beneficial only if leadership exists to provide avenues for youth. An antiquated and self serving political class and an educational system that is devoid of intellectual leadership will inhibit growth. Today’s role models are also those who have succeed for their own ends and material gains. Only qualities of role models that are extolled are their ability to create wealth and global recognition and not the contribution to social transformation. Infosys is praised for putting India on the I.T pedestal but not for the work ethics and efforts that went in to build an organization or for raising the standards of living for thousands of families directly or through trickle down effects. Without the changes to the system, projection of the right inspirational values the dividend would only be a pipe dream.
March 24th, 2009 at 4:57 am
We have a landmass one-third the size of USA and population which is three times. So we have 9 times more people in per units of land. Other words, our density is 336 and US has 31. Even China has density of 138.
To call this massive disaster of population explosion as Demographic dividend is like burying your head in sand.
We have become an ultra-competitive society which is in total materialistic pursuit because no matter what we do, we cant buy a basic quality of life.
Maybe from your Macro-view sir, people’s lives are just numbers and percentages. But there are irreversible losses to culture, morality, environment and our spiritual life that has been caused. The human suffering due to poverty and corruption has been immeasurable.
All those who can read and write on this blog are fortunate ones - but spare a thought for MILLIONS of have suffered a life of poverty, indignity and suffering.
You may have good intentions Mr Nilekani, but sir, unless you propose some radical solutions to our population problem like one child policy (even that may not be enough now), all the other things you mention are just sundries.
I can see where we are headed - in 2040 we will look back - inspite of decades of 8-10% growth - we will still have millions of poor people and our culture and morality will be destroyed by then - then we will wonder why did we allow this to happen. Right now its just a euphoria.
May 28th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
I think one of the point that everybody’s comment is missing is that the book never endorses the fact that ‘demograhic dividend’ is good. In fact, it does talk about the fact that an increase in young educated worker’s population is a boon/dividend but at the same time it could be a curse and that’s why India should have a plan of action for the same, if India is aiming for a non jobless sustained growth of 7-8%.
June 10th, 2009 at 3:59 am
Nandan,
A massive population is India is not a demographic dividend but a demographic liability. Most of the educated Indians, especially in urban areas, are hoping to either study or settle in foreign countries that have dwindling populations. India will be a remittance economy for decades to come and most likely continue to stay poor and jobless.
Indian democracy, coupled with its corrupt bureaucracy, does not have the ability to speedily execute much needed big changes. China has controlled its population and pulled millions out of poverty. Someday, China may be a democracy but the jury is still out if India can feed its malnourished a decade from now.
June 26th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Dear Nandan,
Cautious congratulations for heading India’s revolutionary Unique ID project. Cautious because despite a 10 years long effort we have not been able to issue ‘Photo Identity Cards (PIC)’ to even 25% of our citizens. But this times India does not afford to miss. Its a unique opportunity to serve this country. A meticulous planning with vision and dedicated team of honest people can accomplish this feat in next 3 years or so. Reasons of failure in preparing PIC can be used for advantage of your team. My BEST OF BEST WISHES FOR INDIA AND FOR YOUR TEAM.
Regards
b kumar.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Dear Nandan,
Congratualtions and best wishes on the new assignment / challenge you have been handed by our PM.
The real challenge would be to get the indian government machinery to fall in line, in spirit and action. The legal reforms, the Data digitisation, capacities for sustenance at each level, appropriate technolgy to ensure success at each nook & corner of the country, are but a few challenges in addition to the size and complexity.
I always believed that the Indian Market (specifically the Government) can be a great ground for evolving and developing new ideas, technologies etc for the Indian IT Industry, good enough to replicate or export to the world. The time has come for this belief of mine to be true.
The change from IT in corporate to IT in Communities is the future and these kind of projects or initiatives can truly give India a chance for leadership in every way.
Sincere Regards and Best wishes,
Sanjay Bobde
July 20th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Nandan, I think you are riding on the wave of prosperity and personal cash brought to you by indias large population and cheap labor, therefore you think indias large population is a dividend. You have grown rich paying indians one-thirtieth of the salary they would get paid in a foreign country therefore you love the large population which results in cheap labor. However for your own employees and for the rest of us who make a modest living this population only makes life harder for us. It means our salaries remain low, and we can never afford the quality of life we could if we migrated to europe or america where population is smaller and salaries are therefore more competitive. This so called “demographic dividend” that you speak of is only for those who can exploit it for personal gain (as you have done), but it is terrible for the majority of india who has to live off low wages and work long hours (without overtime). Instead of using your position of influence to educate people on the ills of overpopulation you are doing the opposite, and this will not help india at all.
January 27th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
I think most of well educated Indians are pessimist about Indian future, which is not good sign. What Mr.Nandan said is absoulty out of box and very few has understood. My house maid, earns 5000/month. Out of whatever little she is earning, she spending Rs.1500 to get her girl study in English medium school. Mr.Nandan speaks about opportunity for that girl.What India needs from her people is hope and not lamenting…