After the election
Thursday, May 28th, 2009
When the results were out, there were many people around the country who heaved a sigh of relief.
A few months before the elections, when I asked people I knew who was likely to win - the people I questioned included elected officials, writers, NGO workers, political scientists - a good majority of them were pessimistic about seeing a strong government in power, and especially a Congress or BJP-led one. ‘Our days are numbered’, is how one Congress worker put it. A large number of people suggested (and this was a popular expectation in our media) that caste-based and regional parties would have a bigger clout post-election. ‘The next government will be a hodge-podge, and they’ll move quite sharply to the left,’ one senior policy planner guessed.
The Congress’ win is forcing a re-evaluation. Were the compelling factors for the victory the Employment Guarantee Program, concern about defense, a desire for a more empowered government, or dynastic appeal? People seemed to have voted for stable, equitable development. Its been pointed out that the Congress and its allies did well in places where the NREG Program and the rural electrification scheme were implemented effectively. The win/loss pattern across states is also telling: the UPA did badly in states where the opposition governments have been effective in bringing about development and growth - this included Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat.
Does this mean that the hand-wringing over voters’ preferences for caste and regional alliances was misplaced? I think so. The rise of markets means that there is much more at stake for voters today - good governance and better access to the economy can bring about substantial improvements in jobs, income, and education for children. This wasn’t the case pre-1980, when opportunities were much fewer. Voters are therefore far more demanding of their leaders, and and a failure in governance makes them far less sympathetic to the fact that a certain party is supposed to represent their religion, or caste.
So what will the government do with its expanded mandate? Will we get to see a smart mix of reforms and welfare policy? Will the government finally, attempt to tackle our broken subsidy systems and education reform? The next few years are going to be very interesting.