Imagining India

In recent days, I read several pieces about the dying newspaper industry in the US, including one regarding the impending demise of the iconic New York Times. Other news articles like this one paint a bleak picture of the book publishing industry in the developed world.

The Indian market is on the other hand, very far from mourning the death of the printed word (a fact that I personally, am grateful for) - we are the fastest growing English language market for book publishers, and we are also the world’s most vibrant newspaper industry. While newspaper circulation numbers are falling in large parts of the developed world, it is growing rapidly here in all our languages, and thriving in all kinds of formats - dailies, magazines, tabloids.

What’s especially interesting is the increasing number of square inches our newspapers now devote to columnists and opinion pieces. More and more, we are more concerned with debating the ideas and issues underlying the news feed. Our television channels show the same trend. And as audience input and feedback has grown - with We the People, online commentary and so on - we are reflecting the spirit of a public square in our media more than ever before. I find this heartening, but I also wonder - is this entirely a good thing? I believe that debate thrives on participation. But is there a point where it descends to chaos, with authority and expertise being lost, and every idea being as good as every other?

With new numbers that show a steeper slowdown for India than expected, the state has sprung into action, with the RBI infusing money into the economy, cutting key interest rates by 1%, and the government planning on easing FDI further. 

And with Moody’s predicting that export growth will continue to slow alongside domestic demand, the government and the RBI are going to pay close attention to our numbers.

But amidst all the doom and gloom, there are predictions that the Indian economy will recover by 2009. I am no pessimist, but I wonder if a year will be enough to brighten up the Indian economy, linked as we are, whether we like it or not, to the health of the global markets. Within our borders, we are faced with additional concerns around generating enough jobs and investment for our growing workforce, and addressing issues of inequality and access. If we do build a recovery in 2009, it won’t be just from our relentless entrepreneurial spirit. We will also need courageous reforms towards ensuring a healthy domestic market.

The biggest steps in 2009 I would hope to be see are ‘back to basics reforms’. The high growth of the last few years was boosted by a huge liquidity bubble. As the global economic crisis spreads, it is clear that India will have to go back to fundamentals - expand primary education, liberalize higher education, build our infrastructure and cities, fully implement the single market and reform our labor laws. The path to recovery in 2009 will be expanding access of opportunity to our young people through these reforms. Else both growth and the reaping of our ‘demographic dividend’ will remain a mirage.

Putting all that aside, I do enjoy articles like this one in the Sunday Economic Times, which quoted ‘ace fortune tellers’ predicting a movie-like ‘happy ending’ for 2009. At least the stars are bright!  

My best wishes to you for the year ahead.